El Tri y Cuatro November 29, 2022
Mexico’s red, white, and green national soccer team is affectionately known as El Tri, the Three, but it is the number 4 that preoccupies the thoughts of players, fans, and the press these days. Chiefly, and despite reaching a whopping seven consecutive World Cups, Mexico has not yet been able to win its 4th tournament game. Ever. This year, for the first time in that span, the team may not even get as far as number 4, thanks to Argentina’s much heralded, tax-evading Lionel Messi.
The number 4 also figures prominently in the political theory of President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador, the Morena lightening rod from Tabasco. Rallies are reportedly well attended today throughout the capital city, CDMX, which Bret Stephens’ of the NYTimes attributes to the old leftist-populist trick of giving away tax money to the poor, as if that were an inherently corrupt practice.
However, AMLO’s most fervent followers are not on the Zocalo today for money—they are there for La Cuatro T, the Fourth Transformation, which AMLO believes he has already started. According to his world view, the First Transformation of Mexico was Independence; the Second Transformation was the Reformism of Benito Juarez, in which liberalism took root; and the Third Transformation was the Revolution and modern Constitution. The Fourth somehow revolves around AMLO himself.
Conservatives like Stephens, who grew up among the elite of Mexico City, shudder to think what a Fourth Transformation may entail, but frequent comparisons are made to Cuba, Nicaragua, and especially Venezuela. The mere fact that AMLO is willing to meet with leftist autocrats makes him suspect, and indeed some of his executive actions have created alarm, particularly his willingness to deploy the military, both in civil policing matters and even in the hurried construction of his Maya Tren in Yucatan.
With respect to the Tren, the court system has repeatedly ruled against AMLO, siding with ejidos and property owners, along with environmental and archeological preservationists. Judges bristle at the President’s position that Tren Maya is a matter of national security. One man’s strong leader is another man’s tyrant.
This is year number 4 of AMLO’s presidency. He only gets 2 more years to fulfill his promises for La Cuatro T, which are to end corruption, grow the economy, build infrastructure, and expand social programs to address poverty and inequality. He refers to his Fourth Transformation as one of “Humanismo Mexicano.” And while the results thus far are decidedly mixed, his approval rating hovers above 60%, forcing his critics to focus on the radical methods by which he undermines the courts and other democratic institutions. In particular, his verbal attacks on the press can be downright Trumpian—referring to “fake news, liars, enemies of the people,” etc—which is one aspect of Lopez-Obrador’s “Humanismo Mexicano” that frankly eludes me.
Octavos de Final, or the eighth-final, has no direct English translation, but in the States we call it “Sweet Sixteen.” In Mexico the taste is more bitter than sweet. The stakes are higher, too, as we enter the elimination round—sudden death. The ultimate result will be decided on the field, in plain sight, something that Mexican politicians generally try to avoid. These pols prefer the game to be decided beforehand, in a discrete location, in the absence of relevant stakeholders. In Mexican futbol, there is even a name for it—Cartel del Gol. This is how things get done. AMLO promises to investigate.
In the meantime, all tri-color fans look to the Poles, who need to win their game tomorrow for Mexico to keep any hope of advancing to Los Octavos. Only then might Mexicans win a chance to realize their impossible dream.